Flocking to the Regions?
The rapid adjustment of the Australian business community to a remote working environment from March 2020, driven by policy adjustments to curtail the spread of COVID-19, spurred speculation of a re-distribution of the Australian population away from the capital cities and towards the less densely populated and more affordable regions.
An analysis of the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Estimated Resident Population Data
The rapid adjustment of the Australian business community to a remote working environment from March 2020, driven by policy adjustments to curtail the spread of COVID-19, spurred speculation of a re-distribution of the Australian population away from the capital cities and towards the less densely populated (and more affordable) regions. This article analyses the recently released Internal (Domestic) Migration component of the 2020 Estimated Resident Population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to understand if this trend is reflected in the data. This article does not consider international migration, nor the natural increase components of population growth.
Analysis of internal net migration rates for capital cities compared to the rest of state across Australia for 2020 do indicate a slowing in net internal migration for almost all capital cities by comparison to 2019, though some capital cities did maintain positive internal net migration over this period. In contrast, all regional areas analysed recorded a degree of improvement in net migration in 2020 over 2019 (be that a lessening in negative net migration or an increase in positive net migration).
Capital City vs Rest of State Internal (Domestic) Net Migration
There are two components driving net migration levels – inward migration (i.e., arrivals) and outward migration (i.e., departures). By comparison with 2019 levels, levels of arrivals and departures for all capital cities and rest of state regions were lower in 2020. What is most striking about the difference in arrivals and departures levels between the two years is the sharp decline in arrivals into the capital cities of Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane alongside the sharp decline in departures from Rest of QLD, Rest of NSW and Rest of Victoria.
Overall, the analysis suggests that rather than relocating to regional areas, Australians tended to stay put – wherever they were – as the coronavirus pandemic unfolded. The pause in general migratory patterns between the regions and the capital cities resulted in generally higher outcomes in terms of net migration for regional areas, and lower outcomes for some of Australia’s capital cities.
Difference in Arrivals and Departures in 2020 Compared to 2019
Source: ABS (2021)
The latest Estimated Resident Population statistics for your local government and comprising SA2s are live on DataAU. For more analysis on the components of population growth for your region in the 2020 Estimated Resident Population data, contact our consultants at: info@dataau.com.au.
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